Is price action analysis the same as technical analysis? The answer is ‘yes and no’. Technical Analysis is defined by Wikipedia as “a security analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume”. However, technical analysis can and usually does include a plethora of ‘technical studies’, as it is essentially comprised of anything that isn’t fundamental or news data.
价格行为分析与技术分析相同吗?答案是“是和否”。技术分析被维基百科定义为“一种证券分析方法,通过研究过去的市场数据(主要是价格和交易量)来预测价格方向”。然而,技术分析可以而且通常确实包括大量的“技术研究”,因为它基本上由任何非基本面或新闻数据的内容组成。
Are all of these technical studies, i.e., indicators, various chart patterns, etc. really necessary or worth it? Why do some traders become convinced that these various technical analysis studies are the ‘ticket’ to financial success in the market whilst others rely only on raw price action strategies? We will address these and other questions below…
所有这些技术研究,即指标、各种图表模式等,真的有必要或值得吗?为什么一些交易者确信这些不同的技术分析研究是在市场上取得财务成功的“门票”,而另一些交易者则只依赖原始的价格行为策略?我们将在下面回答这些问题和其他问题……
Why all Technical Analysis methods are not created equal
为什么并非所有技术分析方法都是平等的
Whilst we appreciate and respect technical analysts, as pure price action traders who focus on reading the raw price action on price charts, we do not subscribe to the idea that ‘any technical study is a good study’. Instead, we stick to a handful of simple but effective price-based principles and don’t look at charts and try to curve fit what we see into matching a text book theory example as many popular technical indicator-based trading systems do. There are hundreds of patterns, technical indicator settings and so on, technical trading even if narrowed down into a niche / specific topic can be very haphazard and hindsight is often the way such technical methods are advertised or represented to the beginning trader. Unfortunately, relying heavily on indicators and other technical analysis methods that largely ignore price action, often leads to dramatic long-term failure for retail traders.
虽然我们欣赏并尊重技术分析师,但作为专注于阅读价格图表上原始价格行为的纯粹价格行为交易者,我们并不赞同“任何技术研究都是好研究”的想法。相反,我们坚持一些简单但有效的基于价格的原则,不像许多流行的基于技术指标的交易系统那样,看图表并试图将我们所看到的曲线拟合到与教科书理论示例相匹配。有数百种模式、技术指标设置等,技术交易即使缩小到一个利基/特定主题也可能非常随意,事后诸葛亮通常是此类技术方法向初学者宣传或展示的方式。不幸的是,严重依赖在很大程度上忽略价格行为的指标和其他技术分析方法,通常会导致散户交易者的长期失败。
Many technical analysis tools or methods are full of what I call ‘noise’. That means they include numerous unnecessary variables like technical indicators such as RSI, Stochastic, MACD and countless others. The simplest explanation for why these technical indicators are simply a waste of time, is that they are all just derivatives of price action. If you are going to analyse something derived from price action, in order to make a prediction as to where price might move next, why would you not just analyse the raw price action in the first place?
许多技术分析工具或方法都充满了我所说的“噪音”。这意味着它们包括许多不必要的变量,例如 RSI、随机指标、MACD 等技术指标。为什么这些技术指标只是浪费时间,最简单的解释是它们都只是价格行为的衍生品。如果您要分析从价格行为中得出的东西,以便预测价格下一步可能会走向何方,为什么不首先分析原始价格行为呢?
By analysing ‘other’ technical studies, besides price action, you’re simply adding unnecessary variables and cluttering up the trading process, your charts and your mind. It’s simply unnecessary to trade like this. All you need to make market predictions is raw, natural price data that any market supplies you for free. Don’t believe the hype or any website / ‘guru’ telling you that you ‘need’ XYZ trading system, because all you really need is price action
通过分析“其他”技术研究,除了价格行为之外,您只是在添加不必要的变量,并使交易过程、图表和头脑变得混乱。像这样交易根本没有必要。进行市场预测所需的只是任何市场免费为您提供的原始、自然的价格数据。不要相信炒作或任何网站/“大师”告诉您您“需要”XYZ 交易系统,因为您真正需要的只是价格行为
Why price action analysis is the best technical analysis method
为什么价格行为分析是最好的技术分析方法
I have filtered all the technical analysis ‘noise’ taught around the web and in books, I’ve filtered the crap and condensed it down to what I know works and what is logical. What I ended up with is raw price action, i.e. price movement on an indicator-free price chart.
我已经过滤了网络上和书籍中教授的所有技术分析“噪音”,我过滤了废话并将其浓缩为我知道有效的和合乎逻辑的。我最终得到的是原始价格行为,即无指标价格图表上的价格变动。
By ‘price action, I mean focusing just on the raw chart with nothing but candlestick price bars, on watching the key levels of support and resistance, and on determining market bias and trend in the short term and long term. This is done simply by visually observing or ‘reading the chart’, not relying on 3rd party instruments or technical studies.
我所说的“价格行为”,是指只关注原始图表,只关注烛台价格条,观察支撑位和阻力位的关键水平,以及确定短期和长期的市场偏见和趋势。这只需通过目视观察或“阅读图表”来完成,而不是依赖第三方工具或技术研究。
By using a specific set of price bar patterns or ‘signals’ for entries, and to a lesser extent exits, we can map the market first as price action analysts, then we can massage or locate an entry after patiently waiting for a confluence of factors to align.
通过使用一组特定的价格条模式或“信号”进行入场,并在较小程度上退出,我们可以首先作为价格行为分析师绘制市场地图,然后我们可以在耐心等待因素汇合后调整或找到入场点。
A confluence of factors can be easily described by looking for T.L.S. or ‘Trend, Level, Signal”, and by doing so, we can put the odds in our favour. This simply means looking for two of the three TLS factors to align and then looking for an entry at the point where they align; either a trend or a level, or a level and a signal, or a trend or a signal, etc. If you can get two or more of these factors in alignment, you have a potential price action entry on your hands.
通过寻找 T.L.S. 或 “趋势、水平、信号” 可以很容易地描述因素的汇合,通过这样做,我们可以使赔率对我们有利。这只是意味着寻找三个 TLS 因素中的两个来对齐,然后在它们对齐的点寻找一个条目;要么是趋势或水平,要么是水平和信号,要么是趋势或信号,等等。如果您可以调整其中两个或多个因素,那么您就有一个潜在的价格行为入场点。
Technical analysis doesn’t need to be more complicated than looking for the dominate market trend, identify key chart levels and then looking for price action entry signals. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either trying to sell you something or doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
技术分析不需要比寻找主导市场趋势、确定关键图表水平然后寻找价格行为入场信号更复杂。任何告诉你不这样做的人要么是想向你推销东西,要么是不知道他们在说什么。